African Swine Fever has spread throughout China over the past year, from isolated incidents, to widespread outbreaks across the country. At the outset, the industry seemed to be slow to process the devastating impact that living with ASF was going to have on the industry. Whatever vain hope there may have been that a panacea would appear, the grim reality of dealing with this risk has now fully seeped in.
While the government has moved to bring in policies to attempt to restrict the damage of ASF, such as slaughtering pigs within 3 km of the epidemic site, the industry has already contracted significantly, and now there is a shift in mindset to the new norm of pork production in China with the active threat of African Swine Fever.
The importance of pork in the Chinese diet, the importance of the pork industry to the Chinese rural economy is well understood, and therefore the stakes and commercial risks and opportunities are now very-much raised as to who can win in this lucrative market. Let’s analyse some of the key commercial opportunities that exist in both the short, medium and long-term.