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Infant Formula Regulation: Future Direction

Infant formula regulation in China over the last decade has been inextricably linked and shaped by the vagaries of market dynamics, protectionist policies and technical capacity disparities between China and its international competitors. While the sheer scale of the market makes it a mouthwatering prospect for international and domestic dairy enterprise and investors, the volume and value of the market belies the true risk inherent in China infant formula sector market entry. Risk and rewards are equally great, and the road to success in China’s infant formula sector is littered with the carcasses of less savvy investors or enterprise unable to buffer the disruptive influence of constant regulatory change over the last several years. Accepting that risk is inevitable are there any metrics or information we can use to guide safer investment? Is this even possible, given that companies like Bellamy’s (with multimillion dollar consultancy budgets) have failed in China due to the destabilizing influence of new regulations. Are there any signs of what is likely to happen over the next several months and in the coming years? Here are our 4 predictions:

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